Survives Durable: at least one of the four tests holds, and the evidence is direct.
Solar photovoltaic installers
Physical work in a place that changes every day, on a roof that does not read specifications.
- Horizon
- 2025–2035
- Pay
- $53,140
- Protection from automation
- Partly protected · our reading
McKinsey’s current-capability estimate is the load-bearing number for every trade on this page: software agents could touch about 44% of US work hours, but robots only about 13%, because machines still lack fine motor control and real-time physical judgement.McKinsey 2025
A roof is the strongest possible counterexample to the “AI does everything” story. Nothing about installing an array is stable enough to specify in advance — the layout changes when the timber under the shingle is rotten. The work is not safe because it is manual; it is safe because it is variable and a mistake injures someone.
What holds it up
- Every site is different: roof pitch, timber, weather, wiring
- Fine motor control and safety judgement on ladders and live arrays
- The energy transition is the demand driver, not AI
What threatens it
- Robotics, if dexterity and cost change, is the only real threat here
- Pay is moderate for outdoor, hazardous work
Official projection